How the U.S. will get a third of its energy from wind by midcentury
2014.10.20 作者：Herman K. Trabish 譯／小柯
作者簡介：Herman K. Trabish是一位開業已25年的華盛頓脊椎神經科醫生，但幾年前他明白單靠自己的策略來挽救地球緩不濟急。無意中他湊巧讀了Daniel Yergin深入探討石油業血腥殘暴歷史的書籍「The Prize」，啟發他所著的「Oil In Their Blood」，一本關於兩個石油業家族三代的歷史小說，仍在等待一個快樂結局。
Paul MacCready指導Trabish關於令人驚駭的能源歷史，也是現代再生能源產業的發起之父。之後他倆的師生關係維持五年並獨力營運NewEnergyNews (http://www.newenergynews.net) 部落格。在極其寬容大度的編輯團隊監督下，Trabish極力在Utility Dive上持續對能源發電議題一展長才。
Utility Dive是一個新聞網站，發布最新新聞與分析，為專家報導迅速又即時的電力產業概況。
正文開始：
Wind power doubles by 2020, doubles again by 2030, and almost doubles again by 2050
風能產量將在2020年前加倍，在2030年前再度加倍，且在2050年前幾乎再加倍。
New numbers from the Department of Energy put U.S. wind’s share of the country’s electricity production in 2020 at 10%, up from 2013’s 4.5%.
美國能源部提出新數據，將美國風能的電力產量佔比由2013年的4.5%拉高到2020年的10%。
The draft Wind Vision Study projects 20% of the nation’s electricity coming from wind in 2030 and foresees wind becoming more than a third of the U.S. electricity supply by midcentury.
一份風能展望研究的藍圖（The draft Wind Vision Study）預言，2030年美國的國家電力將有20%來自風能，並預測風能可在本世紀中前佔美國電力產量超過1/3。
“Wind has done a lot of things that many would have argued in 2008 were unachievable,” said DOE Director of the Office of Wind & Water Power Technologies Jose Zayas in explaining why he calls the new vision “an aggressive yet credible scenario.”
美國能源部風能與水能科技辦公室的總監Jose Zayas在解釋為何他將這份新預言稱為「一個大膽卻可靠的方案」時說道：「2008年，許多爭論認為風能無法企及的事情，今日的風能早已達成許多。」
In 2008, the U.S. wind industry had installed 25 gigawatts in 29 states at an installed price of $0.07 per kilowatt-hour. DOE’s projection for 2013 at that time foresaw an installed capacity of 48 gigawatts in 35 states and a price of $0.066 per kilowatt-hour, Zayas said. The 2013 reality was 61 gigawatts of installed capacity in 39 states and a price of $0.045 per kilowatt-hour.
在2008年，美國風能產業已用每度0.07美元的費用在29州裝設25GW的容量。Zayas說，能源部於該年預期，2013年可在35州以每度0.066美元裝設48GW風能容量。而2013年的真況是，有39州以每度0.045美元裝設61GW容量。
The draft Wind Vision Study is the product of work by over 100 private companies and public agencies and is scheduled for official release in early 2015. It estimates the U.S. wind resource at “more than 10 times our current electric sector capacity.” Its numbers are based on harvesting “less than 5%” of that.
風能展望研究藍圖是由超過100間私人公司與公共機構共同合作的成果，預定在2015年初正式發布。它預估美國的風能蘊藏量「比我們現有電力產業容量多過十倍不止」。它的數據則依照「少於此蘊藏量的5％」來估計。
The big numbers數字驚人
The study projects that by 2020, the installed capacity of U.S. wind will be 113 gigawatts, with 110 on land and 3 offshore. The 2030 total will be 220 megawatts, with 200 on land and 20 offshore. By 2050, the U.S. will have a 405 gigawatt installed wind capacity, with 320 on land and 85 offshore.
這份研究估計，2020年前美國風能裝設容量將是113GW，包含110GW的陸上風電與3GW的離岸風電。 2030年的總量是220MW（譯：應是GW？），包含200GW的陸上風電與20GW的離岸風電。2050年前，美國共裝設405GW的風能容量，其中 320GW為陸上風電，85GW為離岸風電。
What the Wind Vision Study foresees “is a steady growth of 7 gigawatts per year through 2020, followed by 12 gigawatts per year between 2020 and 2030,” explained Terra-Gen Power Government Affairs VP Gregory Wetstone. “That’s a big order. But the industry has been largely on that path. If we can secure the right kind of policies, we can get there.”
這份風能展望報告所預見的是「風能每年以7GW穩定增長至2020年，其 後則以每年12GW增長至2030年。」Terra-Gen Power公司政務副總裁Gregory Wetstone說：「這是份龐大的訂單，但風能產業向來發展得很平順。如可確保政策正確，我們就能達到目標。」
“Getting from where we are today to where we need to be will not be easy,” Zayas said. “There are a lot of things that have to happen.”
「從現況繼續改善到我們所需要的未來並不容易，有許多事仍待發生。」Zayas說道。
The study shows cost reduction pathways from now through 2050 for land based and offshore wind, Zayas explained. Given different variables, those costs can be higher or lower. The study attempts to provide clarity aboutwhere the industry must focus to get the more aggressive cost reductions “because cost so strongly impacts deployment.”
Zayas解釋，這份研究也顯示陸上與離岸風能從現今至2050年的成本跌勢。基於不同變數，這些成本可高可低。此研究試圖闡明產業必須專注的重點以獲取更積極的降價，「因為成本對風能佈署有強大影響。」
The Wind Vision study describes 3 broad areas of action: Reduce the cost of wind, expand developable areas, and increase the economic value to the nation.
風能展望研究描述了三大類行動方案：降低風能成本、擴張發展區域與增加風能對國家的經濟價值。
Transmission電路傳輸
In the “expand developable areas” category, Zayas said, transmission is a key. Required transmission additions are estimated at approximately 900 circuit miles per year in the 2020s and approximately 1,100 circuit miles per year from 2031 to 2050. This is about the average 850 circuit miles to 900 circuit miles per year built in the U.S. since the early 1990s and the 3,800 circuit miles now under construction, the study reports.
在「擴張發展區域」的章節中， Zayas說電路傳輸是重要關鍵。據估計，必須增設的傳輸電路在2020年代每年約900英哩，而由2031年至2050年，每年大約增設1100英哩。 報告認為這大約是美國自1990年代早期來的平均，也就是每年增設850至900英哩的電路，現在則有3800英哩的電路仍待建造。
The projected cost for that transmission expansion is an estimated at $4 billion per year, slightly less than the $4.3 billion per year currently being spent on new transmission, according to PJM Vice President Andrew Ott. “And there are no engineering or technical obstacles. Only siting and permitting would limit the necessary growth.”
根據 PJM副總裁Andrew Ott所說，電路運輸擴建的預估成本是每年40億美金，比新運輸線路現在所花費的每年43億美金略低，「而且沒有工程或技術困難。只有枯等許可才會限制必要的發展。」
“What we all acknowledge in the environmental community is the reality of climate change,” replied Defenders of Wildlife President andCEO Jamie Rappaport Clark. “Our renewable energy future and the long term conservation of our rich wildlife heritage are flip sides of the same coin. Finding pragmatic solutions for wind development is very important.”
「在環保社群中，眾人都認同氣候變遷乃是事實。我們的再生能源未來和豐沛的野生生物資源長期保育是缺一不可。尋求務實的解決之道非常重要。」野性守護者（Defenders of Wildlife ）總裁與執行長Jamie Rappaport Clark回應道。
“There are challenges,” Zayas said. “But we have a track record of being able to meet them.”
Zayas說：「重重挑戰將臨，但過往成績證明我們足以迎戰。」
The costs and benefits成本與利益
Further projections from the draft study, all still subject to revision, include:
此份報告藍圖的進一步估計都還在修訂中，包含：
Cumulative savings through 2050 of $149 billion will come from reduced fossil fuel purchases that cut power system capital costs, operations and maintenance costs, and fuel costs in power sector generation, storage, and transmission
1. 直到2050年，累計節省金額為1490億美金，來自減少購買化石燃料而降低電力系統資本成本、營運與維護成本，與電力產業發電、儲能與傳輸的燃料成本。
Electricity rates through 2030 increase just under 1%, but that build-out provides significant “quantified, monetized social benefits” in return, Zayas said. By 2050, rates are expected to drop $0.003 per kilowatt-hour, a 2% savings for ratepayers.
2. Zayas說，電費漲幅直到2030年可壓在1%以下，但電路擴建的回報是提供顯著的「可量化的、貨幣化的社會利益」，Zayas說道。2050年前，預估電費每一度下降0.003美元，對消費者而言省下2%。
The cumulative 2013 through 2050 reduction of 12.3 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent, producing a savings of $400 billion in averted damage from global climate change.
3. 從2013年至2050年累計省下的123億噸二氧化碳，等同省下因全球氣候變遷導致的4000億美元傷害賠償。
The reduction in other air pollutants prevents 22,000 premature deaths through 2050 and saves $108 billion in avoided health and economic damages.
4. 直至2050年，其他空氣汙染物的減量防止22000條人命早逝，省下避免健康與經濟損害所費的1080億美元。
Water use is reduced 4% by 2020, 11% by 2030 and 23% by 2050.
5. 水資源消耗在2020年前減量4%，在2030年前減量11%，在2050年前減量23%。
Increased wind puts downward pressure on natural gas prices and makes the total electricity system an estimated 20% less sensitive to natural gas price fluctuations, resulting in a $280 billion savings for electricity consumers by 2050.
6.增加的風能下壓天然氣價格，讓全部電力系統對天然氣價格波動的敏感度下降20% ，導致消費者在2050年前可省下2800億美元。
The final question最終問題
The last question is how to tell the story in a way that builds support and the study tries to articulate that, Zayas said. “Wind deployment can provide U.S. jobs, U.S. manufacturing, and lease and tax revenues in local communities to strengthen and support a transition towards a low-carbon economy,” it concludes.
Zayas說，最後的問題是如何闡釋風能之優異以爭取支持，這份研究嘗試明確有力地解答，並做結論道：「風能佈署能提供美國工作機會、促進工業生產力，增加本地社區的租賃與稅收以強化與支持邁向低碳經濟的過渡期。」
Yearly lease payments to landowners for allowing wind development on their property grow from $350 million in 2020 to $650 million in 2030 and $1 billion in 2050, the study reports. And yearly taxes paid to local communities grow from $900 million in 2020 to $1.7 billion in 2030 and $3.2 billion in 2050.
報告指出，出租私有土地的地主因風能擴展收取的每年租金可從2020年的3億5000萬美元提高至2030年的6億5000萬美元與2050年的10億美元。每年付給當地社區的稅收從2020年的9億美元提高至2030年的17億美元與2050年的32億美元。
With the fall of coal and nuclear, with possible limits on shale gas supplies, and with the skyrocketing rise of solar, a veteran wind industry researcher pointed out to Utility Dive informally, wind could be the leader in the U.S. energy mix by mid-century.
當煤炭與核能衰退，頁岩氣供應又可能受限，太陽能卻一飛衝天時，一群老練的風能產業研究者非正式地向Utility Dive新聞指出，風能可在本世紀中前成為美國能源組合的龍頭。
“The days when wind was thought of as a boutique industry are gone,” Zayas said.
Zayas 說：「認為風能是奢華產業的舊時代已經逝去了。」
圖表來源： U.S. Department of Energy
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